MANILA, Philippines – Batanes and the northeastern part of Babuyan Islands started experiencing “violent” winds in the early hours of Monday, September 30, as Typhoon Julian (Krathon) was moving over the Balintang Channel.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in its 5 am bulletin on Monday that Julian was already over the coastal waters of Balintang Island, Calayan, Cagayan.

The typhoon is moving west at a slightly slower 10 kilometers per hour from the previous 15 km/h.

So far, it has maximum sustained winds of 155 km/h and gustiness of up to 190 km/h, continuing its rapid intensification before dawn.

PAGASA said Julian will move generally west northwest over the Balintang Channel on Monday and pass very close to Balintang Island and Batanes. “A landfall scenario over these areas remains likely,” added the weather bureau.

But even if the typhoon does not make landfall, it will be “at its closest to Batanes and Babuyan Islands” from Monday morning to afternoon.

Tropical cyclone wind signals are in effect for the following areas as of 5 am on Monday:

Signal No. 4

Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property

• Batanes
• northern part of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island)

Signal No. 3

Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property

• rest of Babuyan Islands
• northeastern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)

Signal No. 2

Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property

• rest of mainland Cagayan
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

Signal No. 1

Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property

• Ilocos Sur
• La Union
• Pangasinan
• Abra
• Kalinga
• Ifugao
• Mountain Province
• Benguet
• Isabela
• Nueva Vizcaya
• Quirino
• Aurora
• northern and eastern parts of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Rizal, Laur, Pantabangan, Science City of Muñoz, Gabaldon, Carranglan, San Jose City, Lupao, Talugtug, Bongabon, Llanera, Talavera, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad)
• Polillo Islands

PAGASA said areas under Signal No. 4 will feel “the peak of devastating typhoon-force winds” between Monday morning and afternoon.

The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Monday, September 30

• Pangasinan, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol

Tuesday, October 1

• Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes

Wednesday, October 2

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra

Julian also continues to bring moderate to torrential rain to parts of Northern Luzon and Central Luzon on Monday. Floods and landslides are likely.

Monday, September 30

• Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, Benguet
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, rest of Cordillera Administrative Region

Tuesday, October 1

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur

Wednesday, October 2

• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands

On Monday, other areas in Northern Luzon not mentioned above may have rain with gusty winds from Julian.

The trough or extension of the typhoon can also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and much of Central Luzon.

The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.

Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northern part of mainland Cagayan still face a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.

For coastal waters, very high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 14 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 10 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.

Very rough seas are expected in the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) as well as the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.

Moderate to rough seas will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

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PAGASA said Julian is projected to begin recurving on Tuesday, October 1, and may also intensify into a super typhoon during this time.

Julian will then turn generally northeast toward Taiwan on Wednesday, October 2, and start to weaken due to the “rugged terrain” there. It might make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday morning or afternoon as a typhoon. Taiwan is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), right along the boundary.

“Julian may briefly leave [PAR] during this period but bulletins are expected to continue,” the weather bureau said.

Afterwards, Julian will cross Taiwan and emerge over the waters east of the country by Thursday morning, October 3. It may then head northeast toward the East China Sea and leave PAR on Thursday morning or afternoon, still as a typhoon.

Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.

The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com