MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Julian (Krathon) started to move away from Batanes on Monday afternoon, September 30, but the province remains under Signal No. 4 and rainfall warnings are still in effect in parts of Northern Luzon.
Julian was already 95 kilometers west southwest of Itbayat, Batanes, as of 4 pm on Monday.
The typhoon is moving west northwest at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h), heading for the northwestern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
It continues to have maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h, while its gustiness is up to 215 km/h.
But the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian could still strengthen into a super typhoon on Monday.
Under PAGASA’s classification, a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.
PAGASA no longer sees the possibility of Signal No. 5 being raised as Julian has begun moving away from Batanes. Below are the areas that are still under tropical cyclone wind signals as of 5 pm on Monday.
Signal No. 4
Typhoon-force winds (118 to 184 km/h), significant to severe threat to life and property
- Batanes
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- northern and western parts of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- northern and western parts of mainland Cagayan (Piat, Santo Niño, Camalaniugan, Tuao, Lal-lo, Pamplona, Gonzaga, Alcala, Amulung, Santa Teresita, Baggao, Buguey, Solana, Rizal, Claveria, Gattaran, Iguig, Lasam, Aparri, Ballesteros, Abulug, Allacapan, Sanchez-Mira, Santa Praxedes, Santa Ana) including the rest of Babuyan Islands
- Apayao
- Abra
- Kalinga
- Ilocos Norte
- northern and central parts of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao, San Emilio, Lidlidda, Banayoyo, Santiago, Santa Maria, Burgos, San Esteban, Nagbukel, Narvacan, Santa, Caoayan, Bantay, Santo Domingo, San Juan, San Vicente, San Ildefonso, Magsingal, Santa Catalina, Vigan City)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- rest of Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- Ifugao
- Mountain Province
- Benguet
- rest of mainland Cagayan (Peñablanca, Tuguegarao City, Enrile)
- Isabela
- Nueva Vizcaya
- Quirino
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Pantabangan)
Batanes will continue to feel “the peak of devastating typhoon-force winds” until Monday evening.
The weather bureau added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Monday, September 30
- Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Bicol
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes
Wednesday, October 2
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, Abra
PAGASA also updated its rainfall forecast for Julian, now covering just until Wednesday, October 2. There are no more rainfall warnings for Thursday, October 3.
Monday afternoon, September 30, to Tuesday afternoon, October 1
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, rest of Ilocos Region
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Tuesday afternoon, October 1, to Wednesday afternoon, October 2
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
For Monday evening, other areas in Cagayan Valley not mentioned above may have rain with gusty winds from Julian.
The trough or extension of the typhoon will also continue to cause scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and Occidental Mindoro.
The rest of the country, not affected by Julian, will continue to have generally fair weather, with just localized thunderstorms.
Meanwhile, Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte still face a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, very high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 14 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 10 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough seas are expected in the northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 6 meters high) as well as the northern seaboard of mainland Cagayan and the remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan and the seaboard of Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4 meters high), the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of the northern part of Aurora and the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Aurora and the northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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Julian is projected to begin recurving on Tuesday, October 1, then turn generally northeast toward Taiwan on Wednesday. Taiwan is within PAR, but along the northwestern boundary. During this period, Julian may exit PAR for a short while, then reenter.
After reentering PAR, Julian might make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday. Prior to this landfall, it may already start weakening due to “interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan.”
Julian will cross Taiwan and emerge over the waters east of the country by Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning. It may then head northeast toward the East China Sea and leave PAR on Thursday.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone.
The other tropical cyclone that PAGASA has been monitoring, the tropical storm with the international name Jebi, is not expected to enter PAR. – Rappler.com
