Three political brands stand out from the recent senatorial surveys, simply because they represent the past and the present, and point to the possible future of politics: the Tulfos, Dutertes, and Imee Marcos.
The Tulfo brothers — Mon, Erwin, Raffy, and Ben — are media personalities known for their tough-guy-with-a-heart-of-gold image. This brand personality has endeared them to ordinary Filipinos disappointed with government inaction and callous officials and eager to get quick justice on the air. The modus, mainly of Raffy and Ben, is to cold call government officials, bait them into arguments, and press them to act on a citizen’s complaint. In the case of Ben, these encounters deteriorate into on-air insults and challenges of fistfights.
This type of vigilante journalism has proven to be such a hit with the masses that Raffy was able to run, and win, as an independent senatorial candidate in 2022. He led all pre-election surveys up until the closing moments when he was overtaken by has-been action star Robin Padilla, who shot to internet fame with his mangling of Eric Clapton’s “Wonderful Tonight” (Clapton should have sued).
The perception of Vice President Sara Duterte as president-in-waiting, already battered by body blows from administration allies, is being challenged by Raffy. He has either tied with the Vice President or is leading in presidential surveys that are four years too early.
Raffy brought to the Senate the same broadcaster demeanor and the same program format. His committee hearings look like episodes of his popular show “Raffy Tulfo In Action” (number of You Tube subscribers: 28.5 million). He is a tough-talking populist in the mold of former president Rodrigo Duterte, but he limits his toughness to government officials and those in power. For ordinary folks seeking his help, the former broadcaster displays compassion and empathy, which can also be considered as the brand’s promise.
Compassion and empathy with a tough exterior is also the brand promise of Erwin Tulfo. A former print and broadcast reporter and anchor, Erwin’s stint as Social Welfare Secretary reinforced this image: pro-poor, ready to help in case of calamities. And some congressmen did him a big favor when they blocked his confirmation. It gave Erwin entry into the House of Representatives as a substitute partylist nominee. His political star has risen since then and he is now reported to be among the Speaker’s trusted advisers.
Like Raffy, Erwin has consistently topped pre-election surveys, with Ben closing in. This could be problematic in the long run since it would split the Tulfo votes.
But the Tulfos display a keener understanding of optics and messaging than the Vice President and her team.
Sunset for the Dutertes?
As this piece is being written, a photo of the Dutertes — the father, sons, and the daughter — has gone viral, a portrait of a happy, solid, admittedly dysfunctional family showing no visible bruises from months of drubbing. The kids are all chill and smiling, while the patriarch, his torso covered by a blanket, can only manage a wince.
A Duterte will surely run for senator, whether it’s Baste the Mayor or Sara the Vice President, as rumors of her stepping down from office to seek a Senate seat persist. The father is expected to make a comeback as Davao City mayor, despite the visible decline in health, to ward off a frontal assault, reportedly backed by the Palace, from the Nograles family. The goal is to protect the bailiwick at all costs, for Davao City that is where the Dutertes are expected to make a last stand.
With their allies gone, the International Criminal Court (ICC) almost at their doorstep, and the heavens exacting righteous vengeance, the Duterte candidate will count on the loyalty, both familial and tribal, of supporters from Mindanao and the Visayas. But support for the brand has been declining, if one were to put credence on recent surveys of political affiliations and the trust ratings of the Vice President.
Revelations of playing loose with the people’s money and her oft-putting public demeanor are seen as contributing to the decline in equity and support. The positioning of the Vice President as a “better” choice was ill-chosen, since it only managed to invite a deeper review of her performance and her personality.
Where to, Manang Imee?
The midterms have not only been beneficial to candidates of the administration but also to family members of popular national leaders.
Take the case of Senator Nancy Binay. She was a last-minute addition to the 12-person slate fielded by her father, former vice president Jejomar Binay, for the 2013 midterm elections. Nancy Binay was included after Aquilino “Koko” Pimentel Jr. declined to join the line up in protest over the inclusion of Juan Miguel “Migs” Zubiri, whom he had accused of cheating in the 2007 elections (Zubiri resigned as senator in 2011 after an election official confirmed there was cheating, although Zubiri insisted he did not cheat). Nancy Binay placed fifth with over 16.8 million votes despite being a political newbie.
However, that political truism is being tested by the so far middling performance of the President’s elder sister, Imee Marcos. She has yet to take pole position in pre-election surveys. In the latest Pulse Asia Survey, Imee ranked 10-13, edged out by returning senators and even by first-time national candidate Abby Binay.
Imee’s tepid performance is a head scratcher, what with her considerable, if not bonggacious TV ad spending, estimated at north of P150 million, and her kinship with the President.
Some say it’s because of her image as the contrarian, pasaway elder sister who is cozy with the Dutertes, sworn enemies of her brother. In a polarized political environment, where lines have been drawn between Marcos and Duterte supporters and a resurgent North vs South enmity, being cozy with the Dutertes may have turned off true Marcos believers. Her fawning adoration of Vice President Duterte, on the other hand, may have been regarded as insincere and opportunistic by the hardcore DDS, since the buzz is that she wants to push for a Sara-Imee ticket in 2028.
But the elections are still seven months away. The campaign period starts in February 2025, and candidates will be making all the moves to win, harnessing their political base and motivating voters with TV ads, social media operations, and not a small amount of black ops against rivals.
The numbers will definitely change, and who knows, a Duterte might barge into the winning circle, the Tulfos could implode, and Manang Imee may yet emerge as the topnotcher, or the Duterte candidate could lose, Erwin overtaken by Ben, and Manang Imee remains in limbo.
Politics has been crazy since 2016, or haven’t you noticed? – Rappler.com
Joey Salgado is a former journalist, and a government and political communications practitioner. He served as spokesperson for former vice president Jejomar Binay.
