MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau lifted Signal No. 4 for Batanes on Monday evening, September 30, but there are areas remaining under Signal Nos. 1 to 3 and parts of Northern Luzon still have moderate to torrential rain from Typhoon Julian (Krathon).
As of 10 pm on Monday, Julian was located 155 kilometers west southwest of Itbayat, Batanes, moving west over the Luzon Strait at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h). The strait is between Luzon and Taiwan, which is within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
Julian did not make landfall in the Philippines, but passed very close to extreme Northern Luzon.
The typhoon maintained its strength on Monday evening, with maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h and gustiness of up to 215 km/h.
In a bulletin issued at 11 pm on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian may still strengthen into a super typhoon on Tuesday, October 1, but it is now possible that the typhoon “has already reached its peak intensity.”
Under PAGASA’s classification, a super typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h or above.
Tropical cyclone wind signals are still in effect for the following areas as of 11 pm on Monday:
Signal No. 3
Storm-force winds (89 to 117 km/h), moderate to significant threat to life and property
- Batanes
Signal No. 2
Gale-force winds (62 to 88 km/h), minor to moderate threat to life and property
- Babuyan Islands
- Ilocos Norte
- northern part of Apayao (Calanasan, Luna)
- northwestern part of mainland Cagayan (Santa Praxedes, Claveria, Sanchez-Mira, Abulug, Pamplona)
Signal No. 1
Strong winds (39 to 61 km/h), minimal to minor threat to life and property
- Ilocos Sur
- La Union
- Pangasinan
- rest of Apayao
- Kalinga
- Abra
- Mountain Province
- Ifugao
- Benguet
- rest of mainland Cagayan
- Isabela
- Quirino
- Nueva Vizcaya
- northern part of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan)
- northern part of Nueva Ecija (Carranglan, Lupao, Pantabangan)
PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the typhoon is bringing strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:
Tuesday, October 1
- Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela, Aurora, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Calabarzon, Romblon, Camarines Norte
Wednesday, October 2
- Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Apayao, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, northern and eastern parts of mainland Cagayan, eastern part of Isabela
Thursday, October 3
- Batanes, Babuyan Islands
Meanwhile, moderate to torrential rain persists in parts of Northern Luzon, even as Julian has been moving away from Batanes.
Monday evening, September 30, to Tuesday evening, October 1
- Intense to torrential rain (above 200 millimeters): Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Benguet, rest of Ilocos Region
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region
Tuesday evening, October 1, to Wednesday evening, October 2
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Batanes, Babuyan Islands
- Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur
The trough or extension of the typhoon is also causing scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Central Luzon, Calabarzon, and Occidental Mindoro.
PAGASA warned Batanes and Babuyan Islands that there is still a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surges in the next 48 hours.
For coastal waters, high seas are seen in the seaboards of Batanes (waves up to 9 meters high) and the seaboards of Babuyan Islands (waves up to 8 meters high). Travel is risky for all vessels.
Very rough seas are expected in the seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 7 meters high) as well as the seaboard of northwestern mainland Cagayan and the seaboard of northern Ilocos Sur (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas will persist in the remaining seaboard of Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the remaining seaboard of the Ilocos Region and the seaboard of Isabela (waves up to 3 meters high), and the seaboard of northern Aurora (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
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Julian is seen to turn west northwest on Tuesday morning, then begin recurving toward the waters southwest of Taiwan.
As its direction shifts, the typhoon may briefly leave PAR, but it is expected to reenter and then make landfall in Taiwan’s southwestern coast on Wednesday morning or afternoon, October 2. “Increasing interaction with the mountainous terrain of Taiwan” will cause Julian to slightly weaken even before it hits land.
After crossing Taiwan, Julian will emerge over the waters east of the country on Wednesday evening or early Thursday morning, October 3. Also on Thursday, it may weaken into a severe tropical storm.
Finally, Julian will head north northeast toward the East China Sea and exit PAR — for the second and final time — on Thursday morning or afternoon.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
