MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon Julian (Krathon) is still expected to reenter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), likely on Thursday morning, October 3, but the weather bureau said it would no longer directly affect the country by then, except possibly the northernmost province of Batanes.
As of 4 pm on Wednesday, October 2, Julian was located 275 kilometers west northwest of Itbayat, Batanes, still outside PAR. It left PAR at 9 am on Tuesday, October 1.
The typhoon slightly accelerated on Wednesday afternoon, moving north toward Taiwan at 15 kilometers per hour (km/h). Taiwan is within PAR, and as PAGASA noted, it is “relatively close” to Batanes.
So far, Julian still has maximum sustained winds of 165 km/h and gustiness of up to 205 km/h. At its peak as a super typhoon, it had maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Julian is projected to make landfall in Taiwan on Thursday morning after reentering PAR.
It may move slowly or be almost stationary over the landmass of Taiwan, where it could rapidly weaken due to the mountainous terrain, and eventually become just a remnant low by Saturday, October 5.
Other factors that would cause Julian to weaken include the “incoming northeasterly wind flow over the East China Sea and Taiwan Strait” as well as the “lower ocean heat content in its vicinity, which is related to upwelling of cooler waters caused by its slow movement for nearly two days.”
In terms of rainfall, PAGASA said on Wednesday afternoon that Julian’s impact has weakened. But the trough or extension of the typhoon might still bring scattered rain and thunderstorms to the Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, and Central Luzon in the next 24 hours.
There are also a few areas remaining under Signal No. 1 as of 5 pm on Wednesday, still seeing strong winds from Julian:
- Batanes
- Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Island, Calayan Island, Dalupiri Island, Fuga Island)
- northern and western parts of Ilocos Norte (Bangui, Burgos, Pagudpud)
The highest tropical cyclone wind signal raised due to Julian was Signal No. 4 in Batanes and part of Babuyan Islands. While Julian did not make landfall, it had passed very close to these areas.
Batanes and Ilocos Norte have both been placed under a state of calamity after Julian left a trail of destruction.
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For coastal waters, very rough seas will persist in the seaboards of Batanes and Babuyan Islands (waves up to 4.5 meters high). Travel is risky for most types of vessels.
Moderate to rough seas are expected in the seaboard of Ilocos Norte (waves up to 4 meters high), the remaining seaboards of the Ilocos Region and the northeastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 3.5 meters high), the seaboard of Zambales (waves up to 3 meters high), and the remaining seaboard of Cagayan (waves up to 2.5 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.
Julian is the Philippines’ 10th tropical cyclone for 2024 and sixth tropical cyclone for September alone. – Rappler.com
